Iraq is not about winning or losing

The one thing Bush got right in Iraq was that the mission was accomplished in May 2003. Everything from then on has been the US occupying Iraq and trying to mitigate the damage from poor planning.

The US will leave Iraq. The consequences might very well be the same no matter if it is sooner or later.

Remember that guy named Saddam who ran Iraq before we invaded it? Ever wonder why he had to rule it with an iron fist to keep peace and order? Iraq is far too fractured a country with a culture that favors loyalty and relationships rather than state and national identity for any one, even the mighty USA, to think the country can be miraculously left in a cohesive national government that rules under law in a democracy.

It will take generations to forget the socialist ways they lived under for decades and it will take more generations than that to forgive the treatment Iraq has received from US forces during this war.

So if we leave we lose. To whom?

The terrorists? Nope. Neither Sunni nor Shia will tolerate al Qaeda on their land indiscriminately blowing up their people. The Sons of Iraq and Mahdi Army have both rejected the foreign al Qaeda operatives.

To Iran? Nope. Remember that whole Iran - Iraq war in the '80's? Other than being Shia Muslims the Persians have no favor in the eyes of Iraqi Shia or Sunni. Sunni already see Shia militia as extensions of Iran (the Badrs actually are and we put them in charge of the Iraqi Army and government via SCIRI). Muqtada al Sadr comes from a long history of hatred and angst toward the Iranians. The Iranian relationship with Iraq right now is bound by a common hatred for the foreign policy of the US.

So we are left to win in Iraq. First, from McCain to Bush to Obama to anyone... the definition of a "win" must be made explicitly clear. The only definition of a win that is out there today is "we win by not leaving."

So who gains by us not leaving? The defense industry for certain. MRAPs and eSAPI to KBR and Blackwater have all benefited from this war beyond reason. Israel also wins if you believe that our presence in Iraq will prevent a possibly nuclear Iran from firing missiles at Israel. Wait, they just performed missile tests last month so that theory is bunk.

We lose the war in Iraq if we stay. The US economy has not yet felt the full weight of the war time deficit spending and that train is coming home soon. Just as Afghanistan bankrupted the Soviets, staying in Iraq will dethrone America. The same population of troops have paid the full price of this war. An entire generation of leaders for the military will be lost, along with all their combat experience, if this nation requires them to face endless deployments and endless danger while the rest of the country worries about the economy.

America has lost its moral high ground already but we face the danger of growing new and more diverse international enemies if we colonize Iraq. With the obvious grip oil has on the US economy it would be foolish indeed to risk the consequences of an endless occupation on Arab soil.

Therefore we win the war in Iraq when we leave.