Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Year of the War Horse
No matter the victor in November this will continue to be the perpetual year of the War Horse.
Both the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were ill conceived and poorly managed. The narrative of an early victory in Afghanistan was squashed under a lump of democratization goals the military cannot deliver and a hijacking of resources to Iraq. The narrative of the war in Iraq is that of victory with still unattainable goals of democratization along with the redeployment of troops to Afghanistan to patch and perpetuate the failed strategy there.
Blind support of Israel in the face of an uncooperative regime in Iran threatens to further destabilise the region with the potential of tanking the global economy.
All while a sovereign nation in the possession of nuclear weapons, with open and widespread support of both the Taliban and al-Qaeda, plays the two faced ally. Pakistan trains and supports Taliban against Afghan and US forces while providing safe haven and material support to al-Qaeda as they provide operators against Afghanistan, India and Kashmir.
In a repeat of the Soviet defeat to the Mujihadeen, the US is in imminent danger of having the economic rug swept out from under its feet while engaged in two very expensive and prolonged wars. The consequences for Russia were defeat, humiliation, loss of lives, and collapse. America is on the razor edge of the remaining potential to make hard choices and save itself.
A military solution is an impossibility in Afghanistan yet both Obama and McCain propose escalation. The lull between Sunni and Shia in Iraq, temporarily secured by a surge of disappearing US forces, is on the verge of collapse with both sides re-armed and re-grouped.
Pakistan is in political, financial and military crisis from both internal and external forces.
The cost of fighting two wars at once with the same small population of military volunteers is failure in both efforts. Conventional forces never belonged in this fight of international leverage and fights best left to the dark side. Terrorism is a method or tactic used in this case by non-state actors that cannot be defeated by a traditional military campaign.
Our insistence as a nation to persecute the wars under our terms and under the definitions of our narrative have led us to deceive ourselves about what we are fighting for (or against) as well as what the true cost of success (on our terms) will be to the nation.
The sure thing this election is that the wars will continue, hell or high water. The military will be bounced back and forth between hot spots until they are exhausted, we run out of money, or the local population is exterminated to the point of inability to function.
The fear of another attack on our soil is the driving force behind the rationalisation of anything and everything possibly covered under the umbrella of defense. The argument goes that it is better to have scores of civilians killed by us and them "over there" rather than over here. The perpetual war serves our leaders as well as their leaders. Wars against bad guys are popular (both side thinks the other is trying to rule them of kill them off so it is defense both ways). Nothing provides political will more than the fear of death or enslavement. The war machine there, and defense industry here, stand to make a lot of money from the conflict.
A new approach is risky to the careers of its proponents and costly in lives to implement. Our lack of will to undertake a holistic approach will doom these wars in the end. The commitment of both major party nominees to pursue endless war ensures no new top down leadership will be injected. This year, no matter who wins, the War Horse will continue to reign and history will continue to repeat itself.
A new approach, without the military face we have come to expect of these efforts, must be implemented now to save any hope of an outcome that the world and this nation can be proud of in these regions. A respect for the local population and customs must accompany the effort. The education, nutrition and infrastructure afforded the population must be the primary effort as their security is in their hands (our military campaign and efforts have proven incapable of doing what their tribesmen have done for centuries: keep the peace and enforce the law).
We must concede that neither place will look anything like America when the effort is completed. Only then can we start to make a true impact in the matters we have chosen to endeavor.
Both the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were ill conceived and poorly managed. The narrative of an early victory in Afghanistan was squashed under a lump of democratization goals the military cannot deliver and a hijacking of resources to Iraq. The narrative of the war in Iraq is that of victory with still unattainable goals of democratization along with the redeployment of troops to Afghanistan to patch and perpetuate the failed strategy there.
Blind support of Israel in the face of an uncooperative regime in Iran threatens to further destabilise the region with the potential of tanking the global economy.
All while a sovereign nation in the possession of nuclear weapons, with open and widespread support of both the Taliban and al-Qaeda, plays the two faced ally. Pakistan trains and supports Taliban against Afghan and US forces while providing safe haven and material support to al-Qaeda as they provide operators against Afghanistan, India and Kashmir.
In a repeat of the Soviet defeat to the Mujihadeen, the US is in imminent danger of having the economic rug swept out from under its feet while engaged in two very expensive and prolonged wars. The consequences for Russia were defeat, humiliation, loss of lives, and collapse. America is on the razor edge of the remaining potential to make hard choices and save itself.
A military solution is an impossibility in Afghanistan yet both Obama and McCain propose escalation. The lull between Sunni and Shia in Iraq, temporarily secured by a surge of disappearing US forces, is on the verge of collapse with both sides re-armed and re-grouped.
Pakistan is in political, financial and military crisis from both internal and external forces.
The cost of fighting two wars at once with the same small population of military volunteers is failure in both efforts. Conventional forces never belonged in this fight of international leverage and fights best left to the dark side. Terrorism is a method or tactic used in this case by non-state actors that cannot be defeated by a traditional military campaign.
Our insistence as a nation to persecute the wars under our terms and under the definitions of our narrative have led us to deceive ourselves about what we are fighting for (or against) as well as what the true cost of success (on our terms) will be to the nation.
The sure thing this election is that the wars will continue, hell or high water. The military will be bounced back and forth between hot spots until they are exhausted, we run out of money, or the local population is exterminated to the point of inability to function.
The fear of another attack on our soil is the driving force behind the rationalisation of anything and everything possibly covered under the umbrella of defense. The argument goes that it is better to have scores of civilians killed by us and them "over there" rather than over here. The perpetual war serves our leaders as well as their leaders. Wars against bad guys are popular (both side thinks the other is trying to rule them of kill them off so it is defense both ways). Nothing provides political will more than the fear of death or enslavement. The war machine there, and defense industry here, stand to make a lot of money from the conflict.
A new approach is risky to the careers of its proponents and costly in lives to implement. Our lack of will to undertake a holistic approach will doom these wars in the end. The commitment of both major party nominees to pursue endless war ensures no new top down leadership will be injected. This year, no matter who wins, the War Horse will continue to reign and history will continue to repeat itself.
A new approach, without the military face we have come to expect of these efforts, must be implemented now to save any hope of an outcome that the world and this nation can be proud of in these regions. A respect for the local population and customs must accompany the effort. The education, nutrition and infrastructure afforded the population must be the primary effort as their security is in their hands (our military campaign and efforts have proven incapable of doing what their tribesmen have done for centuries: keep the peace and enforce the law).
We must concede that neither place will look anything like America when the effort is completed. Only then can we start to make a true impact in the matters we have chosen to endeavor.
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