Sunday, August 17, 2008

Why high gas prices are good

A report from the Department of Transportation revealed that in the past nine months Americans drove 53.2 billion miles less than they did in the same period a year ago. Urban travel dropped by 1.2% and rural travel by 4%.


Conservation in the US has the most impact globally in reducing demand. High gas prices produced voluntary conservation but they also enable investors to seek solutions to the oil addiction.


A drop in prices that allows somewhat of a resumption of "life as usual" will deflate momentum for alternative fuel investment. Corporate America will only take on the risk of expensive electric cars if they have stats to show they can profit from the endeavour.


A slump in gas prices can reverse conservation gains and delay a true solution to peaking fossil fuels in growing global demand.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Not Winning? Change the War

McCain claims he knows how to win wars but we must ask which ones? We need leaders that know how to win the peace. Our military can stomp any State on the globe into the ground but that is not the end of the mission nor is it the hardest part.

The war on terror isn't getting any political points for McCain as more truth becomes known so his campaign has created a position to gain from the Georgia-Russia conflict by opening up the cold war once again.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) welcomed French President Nicolas Sarkozy's mediation of the Russia-Georgia conflict, but expressed concern that the cease-fire agreement "omitted any reference to Georgia's territorial integrity." He also said the United States and NATO must "address the future of the alliance's partnership with Russia" and said the United States and its "G-7 partners" should "discuss whether it makes sense for Russia to continue its participation in the G-8."

Our way or the highway, Russia. Don't mind our missile defense plans in your back yard. Don't mind our ring of puppet nations being built around your borders. Your oil and gas wealth will only get you so far (but we have no choice but to keep buying it so don't turn off that valve, please!).

"For anyone who thought that stark international aggression was a thing of the past, the last week must have come as a startling wake-up call." - McCain

Not such a stark wake up call for those of us fighting the war in Iraq, except that US soldiers aren't the tool this time.

"The world has learned at great cost the price of allowing aggression against free nations to go unchecked." - McCain

This byte sounds great if it is 1945. Its hypocritical from a Republican Presidential candidate in 2008 who has taken a stance more militaristic than Bush-Cheney.

"We should work toward the establishment of an independent, international peacekeeping force in the separatist regions, and stand ready to help our Georgian partners put their country back together." - McCain

Who is the "we" you are talking about? US forces cannot participate as they are tied down in two other wars of choice. NATO and the UN cannot even fulfill their obligations in current conflicts let alone escalate their involvement. And who do you suppose should pay for all this? Ah, the GOP credit card of national debt.


While US home prices are in free fall and the economy is at historic lows you want taxpayers to put Georgia back together?


McCain's position on these matters has eroded the idea that he has an edge on the competition with regards to national security. His experience is not his asset, it is his weakness here. He has failed to shift his paradigm to the modern realities of war and peace. Iraq is not Vietnam, we won't win by staying longer (didn't work their either, bud) and reviving the cold war is counter productive to the true global threat facing the nation.

Georgia is a crisis of Foreign Affairs. The EU has a greater role and interest in resolution than the US. The placement of this issue by McCain is as much "wag the dog" as it is in ernest. The real object for those who wish to retain power is the shift Iraq to Iran. Georgia is a test tube for political strategy at the expese of real people who need actual solutions.

Georgia should have noted the lack of support for the Shia revolt in Iraq '93 before they tried cashing in on the rhetoric of current US politicians. Take notes Kazakhstan.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

al Qaeda Threatens Musharraf

It appears that what goes around comes around.

Al-Qaida Threatens Pakistan (Philadelphia Inquirer, August 12, 2008)

Pakistan's beleaguered President Pervez Musharraf, a U.S. ally, received a direct threat from al-Qaida as his political opponents convened parliament to begin impeachment proceedings against him. In a video, al-Qaida's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, called for an uprising not only against Musharraf but also against the Pakistani state, which he said was "virtually ruled from the American Embassy."

Is this a planned move by the ISI as they see Musharraf on his way out and they feel they are losing control of the central government?

The center for militant extremists was and still is Pakistan. Until the Pakistan issue is resolved all the fighting on the peripherals will not win the war.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Tax payer not a crutch

At Fannie and Freddie, as at other financial firms, highly paid executives stoked profits during the housing bubble by piling into loans and mortgage-backed securities that were bound to tank — unless house prices rose forever and the economy never soured. Greed and poor management skills should not be rewarded with a government guarantee on their future. Private sector risks should shoulder the consequences of choice in bad times as it did in good.

Their higher quality assets, being mortgage related, also made them vulnerable to a housing downturn. In addition, the companies have been poorly supervised — by lawmakers who put a higher value on campaign contributions than on their duties, and by federal regulators who failed to stop the bad lending that fed the bubble.

In that event, taxpayer interests must come first. That implies wiping out the shareholders, so that available cash goes to taxpayers and their claims on the value of the companies take precedence. It should go without saying that taxpayer money should not be used to prop up private shareholders.

Fannie and Freddie may yet make it through without an explicit bailout. Their near-death experience seems to have wised them up. For instance, they are now putting a greater effort into modifying the mortgages of hard-pressed borrowers.

Regulators should clean house now and ensure that never again can so much be screwed up by so few.

Iraq Political Progress


Recent additions to the nations with envoys serving in Iraq:


  • Jordan

  • UAE

  • Kumait

  • Bahrain

The drive for deeper political ties is part of a balancing act playing out in capitals close to Baghdad. The moves come during a time of growing Iranian influence in the region. Under Saddam's rule, Iraq's Sunni Baathist leaders kept the regional ambitions of Shiite-dominated Iran in check; the two countries waged a bloody war in the 1980s that left both sides battered.


Iran is emerging as the real beneficiary of Saddam's fall.


The talk of a US time horizon for ending the occupation is forcing Gulf States to plan for the security void that is sure to follow.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Is Silver just the first loser?

Watching the Olympics brings a curious idea to mind. The USA women's 4 x 100m free swimming team just set a new record for Team USA but finished second to a near world record finish by the Netherlands team.

From the distraught faces of the women on the USA relay team you'd think they just finished last. Really? Is a silver medal at the Olympics not an accomplishment?

I know our culture and the nature of competition makes #1 the place to be but does that mean there should just be one medal awarded, the gold? The image should be of all competitors as Olympians, not just gold winners and losers.

World interest in Iraq - the future


What if the real consequences of the US occupation of Iraq are still 10-20 years away? The damage of the invasion will always be the deepest wound no matter if we stay for 100 years or if we redeployed today. Troops or no troops, America has a lasting responsibility for the condition we created.


Iraq will have to struggle to find a balance of law, power and identity whether US troops are present or not. Our soldiers have provided a distraction for the aggression but at some point the Iraqis must deal with each other.


The future of Iraq is in the hands of a generation of youth who witnessed gore beyond most people's wildest imagination. A brutal occupation by foreign troops, merciless carnage imposed by other Muslims, an insurgency of the faithful not willing to let the ways of Saddam pass, and a solid mental branding of the Arab notion of retribution killings as the way to gain power, revenge and prominence.


No matter how the political struggle is waged, the world cannot allow the children of Iraq to fall out of favor. Their education and future must be a global priority. If not, the ideologies that brought us the Taliban and al Qaeda will have new footing in a generation of Iraqis that have very legitimate and real reasons to search for a mechanism to express their anger.
Some day the kids happy to swim in bomb craters will grow up and realize how their country was raped. Let's hope they don't feel it was also left for dead while being sucked dry of its oil.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Iraq - the Iran Set Up

The lesson for the media in the build up to the Iraq war is lost as we watch a virtual repeat in the current build up to conflict with Iran.

We swallowed the talking points whole before Iraq and that same administration is now serving Iranian flavored kool aid and we are all lining up for a swig.

We cannot at once condemn Iran for being a theocracy and then disregard the rulings of its theocrats. Though with an aggressive nuclear Israel and U.S regularly rattling their sabers who could blame Iran even if it did seek the security nuclear weapons seem to provide? Hillary Clinton recently threatened to "totally obliterate" Iran while John McCain sings about bombing Iran and president Bush called al Qaeda and Iran two of the greatest threats to America in the 21st century. This is slightly hyperbolic since al Qaeda's only successful attack against the U.S. on September 11 ago was a strategic pinprick, not to mention a lucky shot, and Iran has no global ambitions and no interest in attacking the U.S. and in fact has never invaded another country (Iraq started the Iran-Iraq war). [Source]

As wrong as a US attack on Iran would be, using this time to build American support (and international support too) for an Israeli attack is worse.

Washington and Tehran are feeding off of each other and both stand to gain politically in one way or another if the other were to make a move and justify aggression. Those who stand to lose the most and who also happen to be the ones best positioned to stop the madness are the people. If only the people of these two countries at all mattered to the ruling regimes.

Betting on the wrong horse in Iraq

Peace and stability in Iraq are functions of strategic waiting by Sunni and non-ruling Shia. Not Iraqi government progress.

Moreover the dominant parties in the government and in those units of the security forces that battled their political rivals in Basra and elsewhere are the ones closest to Iran. The leadership of the Iraqi government regularly consults Iranian officials and is closer to Iran than any other element in Iraq today. Moreover, the Americans have always blamed their failures in Iraq on outsiders, Baathists, al Qaeda, Iranians, because they refuse to admit that the Iraqi people don't want them. So Iran is a convenient scapegoat to explain the strength of the Sadrists, a strength actually resulting from the fact that they are a genuinely popular mass movement. Blaming Iran also lets the Americans maintain the illusion that the Mahdi Army's ceasefire is still in effect. [Source]

The truth of the situation is in the waiting. All the blood and effort up to this point have been for nothing if our hand is called. Without the will of the people, the actual citizens and not the rulers or politicians, the smoke screen in Iraq that is allowing US political momentum will quickly fade.

The strategic pause by the Sunni and non-ruling Shia is best for the Iraqi people. The people have long been the greatest losers in this US gamble. With time their condition will improve and a moment in history will appear when they will and must fight for self determination.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

The Clinton Conspiracy

I took my crystal ball to the shop for a tune up yesterday and here's what it says today:

The Clintons are secretly with holding support from Obama in order to scuttle his campaign. Why? McCain wins in '08 and that opens up Hillary in 2012.

The proof? Hillary courting her supporters with "hang in there" speeches. Bill refusing to commit to helping Obama in the national media (refusing to say Barack is ready or qualified on GMA for example). Her campaign never conceded, only suspended, for this reason.

Hillary thinks she can beat a one term McCain in 2012. She's counting on his term looking like Bush's third which will make a democrat a shoe in (no really, this time they mean it. Too easy!).

Hillary's hurdle is image and gender. She was neck and neck with Obama in the primaries and now Obama is neck and neck (mostly and statistically) with McCain. Obama's hurdle? Experience (oh yeah, and race, but that's taboo). He cannot explain his way into the heart of Americans on how he is ready to be commander in chief. Maybe someone will invent a video game of the job and if he gets the high score we'll trust him...

The one area Hillary has ground on skinny pants? Experience.

Hillary and Barack are eye to eye on almost every real issue. People think she has the experience to do the job. Her plan is to watch Barack fail to win this election and then come back to the party in 2012 saying "see, if you'd voted for me we would've won in '08 and not had to suffer through McCain as Bush part III."

Depending on how the world is in 2012, it might just work for her. Too bad the Clintons are willing to turn their back to the country now for their own future political gain.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

McCain, if you win, I'll remember...

I'll remember the promises you made along the way in this campaign.

We'll win in Iraq by winning. Winning is only defined in your Vietnam mind by staying (if we never leave then I guess it is impossible to lose?), but you'll have troops out of Iraq by the end of your first term. 2013 you said.

Al Qaeda will have no safe haven in the world.

You will have captured, killed or followed Osama Bin Laden to the gates of hell.

You will not raise taxes.

Several years of robust economic growth.

A safe and stable southern border.

Drilling in the OCS will have lowered gas prices and freed us from foreign oil. We will not be subject to the dangers of an oil supply crash.

A balanced budget.

Nuclear power will fuel our energy needs and it is safe (we will have no accidents to worry about).

America will be safer for having you as our president.

The world food crisis is over.

Iraq was the right thing to do and you'd do it again and keep us there until the job is done, again.


You are campaigning against the brains and hope of a relative Washington outsider. By appealing to fear and stereotypes you might just pull this thing off (how unthinkable it was of another republican earning the office after the Bush / Cheney train wreck). I've listened to your words and marked them in my mind. I will not let you get away with anything less than the perfection you are selling to a comatose American public. You run for office as commander in chief based on your service credentials so if you spill the blood of my comrades in Iran needlessly, I will remember and hold you accountable as a traitor. That's right, fail and you are a traitor in my mind. You are not the man I knew 8 years ago. The world is in too precarious of a position now for America to not have the absolute smartest and best administration in office. I'll remember if you win, McCain, all that you said to get there.

Energy Plan Crazy Pills

American politics disgust me. It seems like McCain and Obama are taking crazy pills and spouting anything anyone wants to hear.

The energy crisis is in our consumption that demands we import fuel from foreign sources.

Domestic drilling will never match domestic demand. By the government’s own reckoning, there are some 18 billion barrels of oil to be discovered in the restricted areas—enough to supply all America’s needs for only two-and-a-half years. Domestic drilling is not a policy solution, it is a red herring drawing America away from the cultural and behavioral changes we are all going to have to make to keep this country free.

Windfall profit taxes sound righteous for the here and now but should be an alarm bell to everyone in our free market capitalist society. When and how deep can government cherry pick our earnings? Any measure that reduces oil firms’ margins in America is likely to have the effect of diverting at least some investment to other countries—and so exacerbate the shortage of fuel produced at home.

The whole suspension of the gas tax idea should have been clue enough not to take those saying it seriously. That would encourage drivers to buy more, pushing up prices again while reducing Uncle Sam’s take. Seriously? You want to be the president of the United States but you think $0.18 a gallon will make a dent? P.S. Did you not see the reports on our dilapidated infrastructure? Pulling that tax money coupled with less consumption (the price of gas goes up but the tax stays the same so less consumption directly impact tax revenues) means unfunded highway and maintenance programs.

Selling oil from the strategic reserves? That is a primary indicator of a person not ready for the highest office. There is a reason that it is called a "strategic reserve." The government’s entire stockpile would keep America going for no more than a few weeks, and is supposed to be used only in dire emergencies.

What will we do when prices spike after Israel strikes Iran without a full reserve? What we will do when a hurricane knocks out vessels in the shipping lanes and we are faced with an American supply crunch? What will we do when we have an emergency and cannot run essential programs because we sold our STRATEGIC RESERVES to fat lazy whiners who refuse to change their lifestyle?

Meanwhile petrol has been getting cheaper of late, thanks to the sliding price of oil. It still costs over $3.80 a gallon on average, $1 more than a year ago. But it is some 25 cents below its peak, and falling. Some Republican lawmakers, ludicrously, claim that the drop is a result of their drive for more drilling. Mere talk of opening up America’s coastal waters, the theory runs, has convinced traders of a big future boost to oil supplies and so pushed the price down. In fact, the gyrations on the oil market illustrate the opposite: they show that the price of oil is largely out of America’s politicians’ hands. [Source]

How about a candidate for president that has put some thought into the hard decisions that face the nation? Someone willing to lead? Someone with some character who doesn't float with the latest poll winds?

Commander in Chief B.S.

In the current election cycle, polls show many voters remain sceptical of Barack Obama's abilities to be a good commander-in-chief, while a much larger number say McCain would be a good commander.

History indicates that the "a vet will be a good president" mentality is not smart.

Being a "vet" (I think this term is wrongly applied here) no more helped Bush be a commander in chief than it helped Grant.

Not being a vet is no more a liability to Obama than it was to FDR.

America needs to see past the Fox News flag waiving and think. THINK.

Al Jazeera has a good piece here.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Army expert on Afghan way forward

Ending the occupation of Iraq to escalate the war in Afghanistan is misguided politics.

Iraq is calming because opposition groups overplayed their capabilities.

The next commander in chief would do well to listen to what 7 years of fighting has taught the military.

LTC (Ret) John Nagl is a foremost expert and says "Foreign powers cannot win counterinsurgency campaigns, but they can enable and empower host nation governments to do so."

We'll have advisers in Iraq for a long time and would do well to apply those lessons to the challenge in Afghanistan before another politician wages lives for political capital.